Hasil Pemilihan Umum Tahun 1977 di tingkat Provinsi dengan perbatasan provinsi yang disesuaikan dengan Tahun 2008
Kajian
Losing control 1994-03-01 The Government has lost a series of quite extraordinary political tussles over the past few
months. I would go so far as to say this must be worst political performance of any Soeharto
administration since the beginning of the 1970s.
However let me be quite clear. The Government is in no threat of being removed or even
seriously destabilised. These losses are not regime threatening. What they do suggest however
is that the new Cabinet (appointed in March 1993) or more specifically the ministers charged
with managing domestic politics, do not demonstrate the subtle finesse of earlier administrations
in managing and massaging issues of senior personnel politics in a way that ensures the
President’s preferred choices are victorious. At best these reverses suggest some diminished
capacity in political management. More ominously it could also suggest that the government is
failing to adjust its political management approaches to a society that is evolving quite quickly in
terms of urbanisation, levels of education and familiarity with the wider world.
There are four events which I would suggest constitute losses for the Government. They are:
1. the failure to prevent the re–election of Abdurrachman Wahid as General Chair of Nahdlatul
Wahid in 1994;
2. the failure to prevent the appointment (on an acting basis) and ultimate formal election of
Amien Rais as General Chair of Muhammadiyah from 1994;
3. the failure to prevent Megawati Sukarnoputri from becoming General Chair of PDI in late
1993; and
4. the failure to prevent the election of Aburizal Bakrie as General Chair of the National
Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) in January 1994.
Each of these people represents a different form of potential opposition to the Soeharto
administration.
Abdurrahman Wahid has demonstrated that he is a potent potential political force. The collapse
of the vote for PPP in the 1987 elections was in no small way a reflection of his effectiveness to
move the public. His decision to take NU out of “official politics” left PPP suffering major
electoral reverses in 1987 with heaviest losses in area with a strong NU or NU affiliation such as
East Java, NTB and South Kalimantan. While Golkar was the main beneficiary of this change,
there should be little comfort that this new support was not vulnerable to a later shift.
Amien Rais has already demonstrated a willingness to open a dialogue on issues long considered
closed. The quinenniel presidential (re)–election has been reduced to discussions about the next
vice–president. The idea of another president remains largely a dry theoretical discussion.
Amien Rais has sought to open the door of public debate about this issue. Ideologically his
commitment to the Pancasila state is often considered suspect by the New Order elites who fear a
potential rightwing drift towards political Islam. March 1994
